marine weather discussion NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 1213 PM EST Thu 4 Dec 2008

.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for North Atlantic ocean W of 50w from 30n to 50n.

High pres across the waters nt2 waters will drift to the se this afternoon and overnight. A cold front now extending from nrn new state SW along the Appalachians to the NW Gulf of Mexico will move E to the Atlc coast by this evening the se across the offshore waters Fri stalling across the central and srn nt2 waters Fri night and Sat. Several of the models develop a weak low pres center along the front by Sat morning then move the low NE along the front later Sat and Sat night.

The models have a difference of opinion on the track of the low with the GFS and UKMET taking the low along the E edge of the offshore waters and the Canadian global...the NAM and NOGAPS farther E. The ECMWF has a much weaker low which is later absorbed into the next approach front. Prefer to keep the low on the edge of the nt2 waters but will keep winds se or E over Georges Bank Sat night then shift to W sun. Have low confdc the that the low on first front will intensify over the Canadian maritime sun.

The next front will cross the waters Sat night and sun with a strong push of caa following the front. The model are much closer with the timing of the front. The GFS...ecwmf...NOGAPS and UKMET all develop a triple pt low over the Baltimore Canyon to Hague line waters. This low will turn N and deepen sun into Mon over the Canadian maritime. All the models fcst gale winds N of Cape Hatteras but plan to keep gale up S to Cape Fear. This will keep continuity with previous package.

The warnings will end from SW to NE as high pres build back across the area Mon. The high then moves E of the waters Tue with the next front approaching. The problem here is when will gale force winds come back up. Plan to shift to S as the high exits and will go with the timing of the GFS...Canadian global and HPC Med range. This will have low pres moving N along a front in the mid Atlc states. Winds inc to gale force late Tue in coastal area from south of new to Cape Fear but will keep warnings W of 70w.

For seas will go with the model for day 3-5. For the shorter term the seas area higher by 2-3 ft in the Gulf of Maine ahead of the approaching front. Elsewhere the model looks reasonable.

.Warnings/forecast confidence...Preliminary. Any changes will be coordinated through AWIPS 12 planet chat or by telephone:

.Nt1 New England waters... .Gulf of Maine...gale late sun into Mon...MDT confdc. .Georges Bank...Gale late sun into Mon...MDT confdc. .S of New England...Gale sun into Mon...MDT confdc. Gale Tue...low confdc.

.Nt2 mid Atlc waters... .Hudson to balt cnyn...gale sun into Mon...MDT confdc. Gale Tue...low confdc. .Balt cnyn to Hague line...Gale Sat ngt into into Mon...MDT confdc. Gale Tue...low confdc. .Balt cnyn to Hatteras cnyn...Gale Sat ngt into Mon...MDT confdc. Gale Tue...low confdc. .Hatteras cnyn to Cape Fear...Gale Sat ngt into sun...low confdc. Gale Tue...low confdc. .Cape Fear to 31n...None.

.Forecaster oszajca. Ocean forecast branch.