marine weather discussion NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 PM EST Thu Dec 04 2008

Marine weather discussion for Gulf of Mexico... Caribbean Sea and southwest north Atlc S of 31n W of 55w.

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The Gulf of Mexico... a strong cold front extends from se louisina to N Mexico along 30n91w to 24n98w. Available long range Doppler radar and lightning data detect scattered to numerous tstms along the front. A qscat pass around 12z showed 20-30 kt N winds behind the front and a small area of enhanced SW 20-25 kt just ahead of the front N of 27n. These strong winds have built seas to 10 ft at buoy 42020 off the TX coast. Models are in agreement in weakening the front fairly quickly as it tracks slowly se...this seems reasonable given the lack of significant upper support. Consequently...winds and seas will diminish along the weakening boundary. However...as an amplified trough (currently over the upper plains and rockies) swings se...the front should become re-engerized Sat...but it will likely be mainly E of the area by then. By sun...high pres shifts E across the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic causing 10-15 kt flow to shift from NE/E to se/S then increase late Mon and Tue over the W waters due to the approach of the next low pres developing over the Southern Plains.

The SW N Atlc... winds continue to subside along the stalled front from 27n65w thru the central Bahamas to wrn Cuba. Buoy/ship reports and a recent qscat pass reveal 20 to 25 kt N to NE winds within 180-240 nm W of the front with 6-8 ft seas. Winds/seas quickly diminish over the NW waters near the periphery of a ridge just N of the area. This front is expected to gradually wash out in place over the next day or so. Accordingly...winds and seas will diminish as high pres sinks S over the N waters and weakens. The next cold front will enter the NW waters Fri and will be reinforced Sat night/sun as an amplifying longwave trough moves into the eastern U.S. As mentioned previously...the models diverge with the timing of the cold front...with the GFS the slowest solution. Stayed in line with earlier package to speed the GFS up toward the middle of the Road ECMWF solution.

The Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlc zone... a pair of weak sfc troughs combined with an upper diffluent pattern is leading to numerous showers and tstms over the SW Carib...S of 14n W of 79w. The tightened pres gradient between this low pres area and a 1027 mb high off the Carolina coastline is producing a swath of 15-20 kt NE/E trades between 65w-84w. Winds are likely slightly stronger (20-25 kt) in the typically enhanced zone near the Colombian coast. Lighter 10-15 kt N to NE winds dominate the trop N Atlc zone. Little change or slight weakening of the winds are expected thru the weekend as high pres builds S and weakens some. By Mon and Tue...a much healthier high pres area builds E into the N Atlc strenghtening winds.

Atlantic... none.

Caribbean... none.

Gulf of Mexico... none.

Forecaster cangialosi. Tropical Prediction Center.