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marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean
NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC
545 PM PST Thu 4 Dec 2008
.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant
.Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.
Eve update...18z GFS/NAM look consistent with prev fcst. No
major changes planned in next pkg. Gales may be psbl W of pt
Arena late Mon as low pres trof intsfys. Appears to be more of a
cwf event.
Seas...18z run of ww3 is within 1-2 ft of ltst sfc obs across
the offshr and cwf. Plan on staying close to gdnc for fcst.
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Previous discussion
The trend in the latest model runs continue to be consistent
with earlier models...therefore continue to following the
consensus of the models over the NE pac and this pattern remain
inline with the mean ensemble output. This pattern has a mean
upper level trough over the central pac with a downstream ridge
over much of the NE pac. The greatest spread in the different
models occurs late Mon into Tue.
The sfc...a slow E move frontal boundary near 145w through the
next few days...with a weakening portion moving into the WA/OR
ofshr waters late sun into Mon. Then be late Mon into Tue the
ridge axis rebuilds over much of the ofshr waters. The GFS model
for early Tue through Tue aftn indicating a tightening pres
gradient over the nrn into cntrl calif ofshr waters with
possible winds to gale force. The other models are not
indicating as strong of a gradient. Additionally going with the
idea that the GFS gradient maybe actually farther ofshr than
noted...this combined with the increasing stblty with the lower
levels...will keep the winds in the ofshr zones below gale force
at this time.
As for seas...will be going towards the latest ww3 wave model.
.Warnings/forecast confidence...Preliminary. Any changes will be
coordinated through AWIPS 12 planet chat or by telephone.
.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters...
.Cape Flattery to Cape Lookout...none.
.Cape Lookout to point St George...None.
.Pz6 California waters...
.Pt St George to pt Arena...none.
.Pt Arena to pt Conception...None.
.Pt Conception to Guadalupe island...None.
.Forecaster banks/mcrandal. Ocean forecast branch.
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